Warren to target prediction market oversight as incoming Senate Banking chair

Sen. Elizabeth Warren plans to use the Senate Banking Committee's investigative powers against prediction markets and election betting platforms once she takes the panel's gavel in January, a banking committee aide told Punchbowl News. Bitcoin Magazine reported on Monday that Warren wants to stop what the aide called the sector's "Wild West-style lack of oversight."

CNBC reported the same day that prediction market regulation sits among Warren's top issues for the Congress that convenes in January, alongside the cost of living and tighter export controls on advanced AI chips to China. The aide spoke on condition of anonymity because the agenda has not been announced. Democrats' midterm wins last week hand the party control of committee gavels, which brings the ability to set the legislative agenda and subpoena power to compel testimony under oath.

The committee's remit runs wide. CNBC noted jurisdiction over federal monetary policy, banks, housing and export controls, so the gavel reaches the Federal Reserve and the crypto industry at once. Bitcoin Magazine placed Kalshi and Polymarket inside that orbit, describing Polymarket as a crypto-native venue that settled U.S. access through a CFTC-registered exchange after years offshore, while Kalshi operates as a designated contract market under the same regulator.

Warren intends to aim the committee's oversight at insider trading and platform manipulation on prediction venues, the report said. She and Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis already put that concern in writing on Oct. 28, when they sent letters to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan asking how the companies keep candidates, campaign staff and other insiders from trading election contracts. The letter extended a bipartisan push the pair opened before the midterms.

"We are particularly troubled by election-related event contracts," the senators wrote. "Event contracts tied to elections receive prominent coverage and are treated by some observers as indicators of political momentum. There are also documented cases of candidates betting on their own races, which undermines the overall integrity of the American electoral process."

The letter cited candidates who traded on their own contests on Kalshi, including a February 2026 California gubernatorial race, and pointed to research alleging wash trading and volume manipulation on Polymarket. It also referenced an NPR investigation of campaign insiders who said they traded ahead of polling releases. "The identification of isolated instances of improper trading does not demonstrate that these markets are adequately protected," Warren and Curtis wrote. "Instead, it raises serious questions about how much similar activity may be going undetected." Written answers were requested by Election Day, Nov. 3.

Kalshi's head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, told Business Insider that the company "proactively blocks candidates and campaign staff from trading to protect market integrity," according to Bitcoin Magazine. Polymarket did not respond to that request for comment.

The fight lands on a committee that oversees the regulator now policing those platforms. Under Chairman Michael S. Selig, the CFTC has spent 2026 defending Kalshi and Polymarket against state gambling laws, suing Wisconsin, New York and others to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts on registered exchanges, the report said. A Democratic Banking chair arrives as the counterweight to that stance.

Warren's wider agenda covers plenty beyond betting markets. The aide listed affordability legislation, a push to cap credit card interest rates, follow-up to her 21st Century Road to Housing Act and lower medical, consumer and student debt. Constraints on AI chips going to China come alongside rules for AI at home.

The oversight net stretches further still. Warren said tech CEOs, administration officials, Trump family cryptocurrency businesses and Wall Street executives should prepare to answer the committee's questions and preserve their documents, the aide said. The Punchbowl rundown also named oversight of Trump administration officials, Wall Street CEOs, Big Tech executives and anyone tied to the Trump family's crypto ventures among the targets.

One deadline has already passed: Warren and Curtis asked Kalshi and Polymarket for written answers by Nov. 3, and the committee's hearing room opens to them in January.